Of lately the commentariat are rife with opinions, warnings, caution and advice. Kenya’s Somali incursion generated a plethora of reactions, excitement and pandemonium. Kenya, for the first time in its history, is at war on a foreign soil. The Kenyan government alleges that it is pursuing Alshabaab militants responsible for a spate of recent kidnappings of its most prized guests- tourists and aid workers. The operation is christened Linda Nchi- Protect the Country. But the most astonishing aspect of all these developments; is the speed with which events unfolded: British couple was kidnapped, a wheel-chair bound French woman followed and two Spanish aid workers and then the Kenyan army was 100 kms into Somali soil. There are a lot of “firsts” here. It is the first time that the Kenyan army had been this far into Somali territory. It is also the first time that Kenya had reacted this strongly. Even in the wake of the deadly August 1998 Nairobi US embassy bombing, in which many Kenyan citizens lost life and limp, the reaction was comparably lukewarm. Not to mention all the more routine Ethiopian tribesmen who cross into Kenya to raid livestock, kill and maim.
Hitherto Kenya was an oasis of peace and stability in a sea of conflict and anarchy. A success story; in a region marred by the dearth of peace. Many a time it is the repose of weary refugees from its troubled neighbors. Needless to say, Kenya plays host to the largest refugee complex in the world (Dadaab)-interestingly 90kms from the border with Somalia, of which 90% of the occupants are from Somalia. The much prosperous and wealthy Somali enclave of Eastleigh (Nairobi), where a sizeable Somali populace resides, merits a mention. Eastleigh, as one Kenyan official alluded is where the “head” of the terrorist Alshabaab is buried with the tail wagging in Somalia. Eastleigh, therefore, is the hub where Alshabaab conduct their financial transactions. So why go after the tail when you could decapitate the head right there and then?
Few days and 100kms into Somalia, Kenya’s armored vehicles and military hardware, are literally bogged-down in the deluge-beaten, muddy plains of the Jiiro. Perhaps, signs of more ominous things to come. You may say.
History itself is littered with lessons of failed foreign invasions however good-intentioned it may be. And so Somalia is a “special” case: No foreign force –including the mighty US marines- succeeded in claiming victory and pacifying Somalia. A most germane example is Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia in 2006 to topple the UIC – (the mother of Alshabaab). The Ethiopians retreated after a blood-bath and a humiliating defeat. Thus historical odds are stuck against Kenya. The onus is on Kenya to prove otherwise in this adventurous game of Russian roulette.
The initial reaction of the denizens of Jubba-land to the Kenyan army is one of warm welcome, at least for the time being. There was also a public demonstration in Dhobleey in support of Kenya’s invasion or liberation, whichever way you discern it. Don’t take anything at face value, for those privies to the confused political landscape of Somalia will bear witness. Allegiances shift, lines are redrawn, alliances reshape to the least of impacts much like sand dune in a strong wind. Beware of the constantly mutating Somali politics. A friend morphs into an enemy overnight and vice versa.
As many commentators and analysts elucidated, Kenya’s invasion might hand the Shabaab a much needed life-line and relevance, as they are losing ground militarily, financially and their power and influence is on the wane. It is very likely that the Shabaab will exploit sentiments of religion to rally the population to fight, very much so if civilians are caught in the cross-fire or as a collateral damage. The dying kick of a devil is dangerous. It would be foolhardy to underestimate the threat of a major reprisal attack by the Shabaab on Kenyan soil.
It is of utmost importance to win the war in Kenya: Winning the war of “hearts” and “minds” of the ethnic Somali-Kenyans and the Somalis from Somalia residing in Kenya. Any attempts to marginalize or witch-hunt them by the Kenyan security forces would legitimize Shabaab’s actions and radicalize them. There is already a brewing xenophobic sentiment- much like the one that was exacted on foreigners here in South Africa in 2008- toward ethnic Somalis of Eastleigh.
So Kenya’s position, after the Somali invasion is a precarious one, a balancing act and one that could potentially suck the Safari country, the tourist mecca, Kenya into conflict.
Officially, Kenya’s goal is to push the Shabaab as far as possible from its borders and that includes capturing the port-city of Kismayo-the administrative center of the Juba’s. But what is going to follow is still foggy. One whisper making the rounds says that; Kenya will install a regional administration; hinged on the reasoning that it will cushion Kenya from any future security threat from Somalia. And it makes complete sense and perhaps symbiotically beneficial.
Kenya’s war on the Shabaab has won her a lot of friends as was demonstrated in Dhabley and elsewhere. The terrorist Alshabaab are a Godless bunch, devious cowards, murderers, student-killers and manufacturers of all kinds of misery. They have been a liability on the people of the Juba’s and the Somalis in general for far too long and a thorn in the side of neighboring countries. No tear will be shed for getting rid of them with their foreign Alqaeda bedfellows. Therefore Kenya helping in eradicating then is a moral duty.
But what came as a surprise and worryingly so, is president Sharif Ahmed who went back on his promise to help Kenya fight the Shabaab, (not that it matters) and gainsaid his agreement with Kenya’s foreign minister and minister of defense in Mogadishu. Sharif Ahmed is a dummy, a profoundly dim-witted individual, his utterances puerile. He shouts to the airwaves from his residence in the Amisom armored vehicle –that recently liberated Mogadishu from Alshabaab- and posits that Kenya, by fighting the Shabaab in the Jubas is infringing on the sovereignty of Somalia. The irony is laid bare for all to see.
The lower Jubba, the middle Jubba, and the Gedo regions-the target of Kenya’s war on Alshabaab- is a region that has been neglected for far too long and allowed to atrophy. While all the aid and effort of the international community trickled-down to Mogdishu and ended there with no tangible result (save for the recent liberation of large swaths of Mogadishu by Amisom).
With ample farmland and thriving pastoral communities coupled with access to the sea, this region is naturally endowed with resources. This makes it a more viable economic project. It can more than stand on its own as a federal state or semi-autonomous bloc awaiting Mogadishu’s sanity to return. With stability and peace, the threat of famine will be a thing of the past.
If Kenya succeeds in its endeavor to eliminate the Shabaab scourge and help establish a semi-autonomous administration in the Jubba and Gedo regions, it would no doubt add to the long list of laurels for Kenya, as a peaceful host of refugees, a peace-broker, and now a peace-maker. It will also provide another building block for the bottom-up approach of pacifying and resuscitating one central Somali government- the Holy Grail. Only time will tell.
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